Rent vs Buy in 2026: Where Buying Wins
Once a year we run the same comparison for every market we cover: rent for seven years, or buy the median home and sell after seven, and see which leaves you better off. The inputs are the Rent v Buy calculator defaults, held constant everywhere, so the only things that change from one market to the next are the local price, rent, property tax, insurance, and appreciation from our seed data. The one input we vary on purpose is the mortgage rate, because that is what moves the answer the most.
The answer depends on the rate
The same 149 markets, the same seven-year hold, three different mortgage rates. The current rate sits in the middle. This is the honest core of the study: there is no permanent answer to rent vs buy, only an answer at a given rate.
| Mortgage rate | Buying wins | Renting wins | Too close to call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | 111 | 32 | 6 |
| 6.5%current | 93 | 43 | 13 |
| 7.0% | 77 | 66 | 6 |
Counts are the number of markets, out of the 149 with a verified median price, where the seven-year net position favors each side. A market is counted as too close when the two sides land within about $5,000 of each other.
The 6.5% row is the current rate, rounded from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed of 6.49% for the week ending July 9, 2026. The 6.0% and 7.0% rows bracket it so you can see how far the count shifts.
One thing worth stating plainly: none of the 149 markets reaches a cash break-even inside seven years. Over that span the down payment and closing costs keep the running cost of owning above renting the whole time. Where buying wins, it wins on the equity and sale proceeds at the end, not on a lower monthly bill along the way.
Where buying's seven-year edge is largest
These markets show the biggest gap in the buyer's favor over seven years at the current rate. The edge is the buyer's net position minus the renter's, after the renter invests the monthly difference. A large edge usually pairs a moderate price with strong local appreciation.
| Market | Type | Median price | 7-year edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston, SC | Metro | $499,300 | +$419,574 |
| Knoxville, TN | Metro | $459,900 | +$263,505 |
| Sarasota, FL | Metro | $485,000 | +$257,359 |
| Miami, FL | Metro | $499,000 | +$245,971 |
| Florida | State | $426,000 | +$228,671 |
| Nashville, TN | Metro | $539,900 | +$221,392 |
| Tampa, FL | Metro | $400,000 | +$216,276 |
| Daytona Beach, FL | Metro | $379,900 | +$205,629 |
| Orlando, FL | Metro | $419,900 | +$200,626 |
| Riverside, CA | Metro | $595,000 | +$195,375 |
Where renting stays ahead by the most
Here the renter comes out further ahead over seven years, again at the current rate. These tend to be high-price, high-price-to-rent markets where the money not spent on a down payment and carrying costs compounds faster than the home builds equity.
| Market | Type | Median price | 7-year edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose, CA | Metro | $1,398,000 | -$329,945 |
| San Francisco, CA | Metro | $998,250 | -$164,438 |
| Austin, TX | Metro | $475,000 | -$139,151 |
| Alaska | State | $446,625 | -$111,994 |
| Sacramento, CA | Metro | $634,900 | -$105,810 |
| North Dakota | State | $359,900 | -$105,565 |
| New York | State | $688,844 | -$103,544 |
| Omaha, NE | Metro | $424,000 | -$101,170 |
| Nebraska | State | $345,000 | -$97,520 |
| San Antonio, TX | Metro | $325,000 | -$80,745 |
Every state at the current rate
All 51 states, listed A to Z for lookup, computed at the current 6.5% rate over seven years. The edge column is the buyer's seven-year net position minus the renter's: positive favors buying, negative favors renting.
| State | Median price | 7-year verdict | Monthly to own | Monthly to rent | 7-year edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | $339,450 | Buying | $2,271 | $1,165 | +$43,371 |
| Alaska | $446,625 | Renting | $3,120 | $1,315 | -$111,994 |
| Arizona | $478,500 | Buying | $3,138 | $1,715 | +$105,424 |
| Arkansas | $319,450 | Renting | $2,217 | $1,015 | -$19,850 |
| California | $749,450 | Too close | $4,966 | $2,415 | -$3,542 |
| Colorado | $575,000 | Buying | $3,856 | $1,915 | +$6,187 |
| Connecticut | $534,200 | Renting | $4,080 | $1,715 | -$42,935 |
| Delaware | $480,000 | Buying | $3,122 | $1,515 | +$46,139 |
| District of Columbia | $550,000 | Too close | $3,632 | $2,415 | -$1,925 |
| Florida | $426,000 | Buying | $3,122 | $2,015 | +$228,671 |
| Georgia | $396,950 | Buying | $2,764 | $1,515 | +$88,834 |
| Hawaii | $740,000 | Buying | $4,617 | $2,715 | +$162,355 |
| Idaho | $584,950 | Buying | $3,805 | $1,415 | +$43,414 |
| Illinois | $312,423 | Renting | $2,516 | $1,515 | -$13,401 |
| Indiana | $299,900 | Buying | $2,094 | $1,115 | +$47,787 |
| Iowa | $270,000 | Renting | $2,047 | $1,115 | -$22,641 |
| Kansas | $280,000 | Renting | $2,143 | $1,115 | -$25,015 |
| Kentucky | $300,000 | Buying | $2,123 | $1,115 | +$5,385 |
| Louisiana | $275,000 | Too close | $2,062 | $1,215 | +$3,942 |
| Maine | $432,425 | Buying | $3,075 | $1,515 | +$86,156 |
| Maryland | $432,450 | Buying | $3,005 | $1,715 | +$36,478 |
| Massachusetts | $764,500 | Renting | $5,371 | $2,415 | -$22,831 |
| Michigan | $284,225 | Buying | $2,100 | $1,315 | +$37,912 |
| Minnesota | $399,000 | Renting | $2,883 | $1,415 | -$67,370 |
| Mississippi | $298,750 | Too close | $2,116 | $1,115 | -$4,427 |
| Missouri | $300,000 | Buying | $2,155 | $1,215 | +$18,783 |
| Montana | $637,000 | Buying | $4,260 | $1,515 | +$44,536 |
| Nebraska | $345,000 | Renting | $2,688 | $1,115 | -$97,520 |
| Nevada | $489,950 | Buying | $3,161 | $1,715 | +$68,366 |
| New Hampshire | $599,000 | Renting | $4,583 | $1,715 | -$47,893 |
| New Jersey | $554,495 | Too close | $4,395 | $2,215 | +$4,436 |
| New Mexico | $387,250 | Buying | $2,636 | $1,315 | +$33,341 |
| New York | $688,844 | Renting | $4,963 | $2,415 | -$103,544 |
| North Carolina | $412,450 | Buying | $2,805 | $1,515 | +$132,107 |
| North Dakota | $359,900 | Renting | $2,538 | $1,115 | -$105,565 |
| Ohio | $281,950 | Too close | $2,100 | $1,115 | +$4,115 |
| Oklahoma | $295,155 | Renting | $2,234 | $1,115 | -$19,236 |
| Oregon | $550,000 | Renting | $3,725 | $1,715 | -$31,733 |
| Pennsylvania | $317,000 | Buying | $2,343 | $1,415 | +$41,704 |
| Rhode Island | $581,975 | Buying | $4,200 | $1,915 | +$73,883 |
| South Carolina | $365,000 | Buying | $2,447 | $1,515 | +$130,895 |
| South Dakota | $382,200 | Renting | $2,774 | $1,115 | -$74,687 |
| Tennessee | $429,950 | Buying | $2,888 | $1,515 | +$135,247 |
| Texas | $359,950 | Renting | $2,882 | $1,515 | -$45,167 |
| Utah | $575,450 | Buying | $3,726 | $1,515 | +$20,751 |
| Vermont | $495,000 | Renting | $3,762 | $1,515 | -$52,501 |
| Virginia | $465,000 | Buying | $3,151 | $1,715 | +$12,745 |
| Washington | $648,500 | Renting | $4,360 | $1,915 | -$53,667 |
| West Virginia | $253,250 | Too close | $1,733 | $915 | +$3,042 |
| Wisconsin | $399,000 | Renting | $2,944 | $1,315 | -$60,624 |
| Wyoming | $463,500 | Renting | $3,067 | $1,115 | -$76,638 |
Denominator note: of the 150 markets we publish (51 states and 99 metros), 149 have a verified median listing price and are counted here. Excluded: Poughkeepsie, NY, where the median price is still in verification, so it is left out rather than estimated.
What we held constant
Every non-location input is fixed at the Rent v Buy calculator default, so the comparison is apples to apples across markets. Home price, rent, property tax, insurance, and appreciation come from our seed for each location. These are the held-constant values:
- Mortgage rate: 6.0%, 6.5%, and 7.0% (the study runs all three)
- Loan term: 30-year fixed
- Time in the home: 7 years
- Down payment: 20% of the home price
- Rent growth: 3% per year
- Investment return: 7% per year, on the difference the renter invests
- Maintenance: 1% of home value per year
- PMI: 0.85% per year, removed automatically at 80% loan-to-value
- Buyer closing costs: 3% of the home price
- Seller closing costs: 6% of the sale price
This study runs the base model, the same one the calculator opens on, with no income-tax or capital-gains modeling layered in. For the full month-by-month model and every source behind the seed figures, see the methodology and data sources page.
Sources
Every location figure traces to our seed data, and the mortgage rate traces to a dated primary source.
- Mortgage rate: Freddie Mac PMMS, 30-year fixed, 6.49% for the week ending July 9, 2026.
- Home price, rent, property tax, insurance, and appreciation: our per-location seed, documented with each upstream source on the methodology page.
By Barron Hansen, Founder · Last reviewed